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Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Habs by the Numbers: P.K Subban's Accuracy

Hello again HabsAddicts,

Just a quick few lines today to elaborate a little on PK Subban's shooting accuracy.

Frequent Comments

One of the comments I hear the most about Pernell Karl is that his big "wind up" has become too predictable.

As much as this is true, I believe he's been varying his shots from the blueline lately. Maybe that explains his three goals and 11 points in his last 12 games.

The next comment I hear most often about number 76 is that his shot hits the glass more often than the net. I was curious about how true that was. Let's look at some numbers.

Where Does Subban Fit?

This season, P.K is currently seventh among NHL defensemen in shots on net after 75 games.

The table below shows the number of shots, as well as the number of "missed shots". If we add both, we get the total of unblocked shots towards the net.

 

With this figure, we're able to find out the actual accuracy of the player. Where does Subban fit? Surpringly enough, he comes in second in accuracy (72.0%) among the top ten shooting defensemen of the league this season.

Did Subban Improve This Year?

Dare we compare to last season?

Guess what? Subban even improved this year! He was still among the top ten in the league in shots on net (was actually 8th vs 7th this year), and was 3rd in accuracy (71.6%)!

If you compare the below list, which is for the 2010-11 season, and the one above for this year, you'll notice that Subban and Chara are probably the most consitent top ten d-men in terms of both quantity AND quality.


Are you surprised?

I must admit that I was a little bit. I figured Subban's numbers would be great, but I didn't expect to find him at the top for the last 2 years.


---
Frank Dumais is a freelance writer, currently contributing to HabsAddict.com “Habs By the numbers” weekly column. He writes on current Habs topics, but with a “numbers twist”.

Follow Frank on Twitter

(Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

14 comments:

So basically what you are confirming is that people are complaining for nothing. Constantly looking for something negative to say about the guy.

My favorite comment is that he is having a bad year in comparison to last season.

First you show the shots stats then look past that.
Averaging the ice time. Last season he was -8 and this season +4. last season 38 points, this season so far 35 points.

For the lfie of me I don't understand why people crap all over this kid. Maybe the explanation parallels what Darren Pang said. He doesn't play the white......errrrr right way.

@Bryan

I largely agree with you here, and Pang was spot on in his verbal slip.

Still, although P.K is an accurate shooter, I can't say I have ever felt accuracy was a big issue to begin with.

My contention is that, for a time, his windup / slapshot became a bit too predictable. But, he has adjusted that over the last few weeks as well. All in all, I can't really complain about the young blueliner.

I love PK. A kid who has the work ethic and skill to match. So often we've seen guys who were skilled beyond belief but lacked the motivation and effort to become dominant players.

I am hoping that we see #76 for at least another 10 years on this team.

Can't wait to surround him with guys like Beaulieu, Tinordi, Ellis, Dietz, etc...

This kid will be representing our country in 2 years.And so will price.Mark my words.You heard it here first!!!

A Bruins fan told me Habs are going no where with Subban they should get that cancer out of the dressing room,after a pause he said he would look real good beside Chara. I told him to F

I hope tha Habs draft Subbans 2 younger brothers !
Ones a GK , and the other i think is a forward.

Thanks a lot Francois, you just gave PK's agent more ammo for his negotiations this summer!

On a serious note I think PK's 'resurgence' is less about his shot and more about being able to start playing his game again and developing a relationship with RC. PK said it before, he is going to make mistakes and the coaches are there to correct him. In that statement alone he has either figured this out through dialogue with the coaches or always knew this but never had much dialogue with JM who notoriously didn't speak to younger players. PK is not a cactus that can thrive in a harsh desert. He's more like a grape vine that under the right conditions will make some great wine. RC has done a good job in balancing the need for discipline and smart play with allowing PK to regain some of his swagger. Because PK without swagger is like Thor without his hammer and RC knows this.

Great stuff, as always, Francois!

It never cease to amaze me the kind of information you can dig up when you scratch below the surface.

To me, I think Subban had a rocky first 25-35 games, adjusted through the middle, and has been a horse over the last 25.

The fact that in what many are calling a "bad" year for the youngster, he has 35 points (three of his total of 38 for last season).

This while shoulder the load of the No. 1 defenseman, routinely playing over 25 minutes per game. WAY too much game, too soon for such a young player.

But still, for some reason, he gets no slack.

I don't get it but the numbers show that this is an all-world defenseman in the making. Give him a few more years of seasoning, and a season or two playing behind Markov, and this guy is going to be a real stud.

@sanman_11: Love the analogies! And you are bang on my friend!

Subban HAS to play with swagger. Can you imagine Roenick playing and having to "tone it down"? He wouldn't be Roenick.

Same deal for Subban and the Habs need a coach who recognizes and embraces that fact, not one who chooses to stifle it.

Thanks for all the replies, guys. You're all bringing very valid points.

@Kamal
What an interesting point you're brining here. Here's PK's season broken down by 25 games:

GAMES G A PTS +/- AVG TOI AVG TOI/SHIFT
01-25 1 9 10 0 23:34 0:44
26-50 2 7 9 -1 23:54 0:48
50-75 4 12 16 +5 25:20 0:52

If these are not clear signs on a young man maturing and progressing, be it naturally or with the help of some "swift kicks", I don't know what it is.

One more note of interest on PK: how many defensemen, age 22 or younger,have collected each season at least 35 points, 190 shots and have TOI of at least 22mins per game?

Well, the NHL has been keeping tab on TOI since 1998, so let's do it since then. The answer: 2.

Dion Phaneuf has done it in years 2 and 3 of his career, and Subban in his first 2 full seasons.

PK is quickly becoming a clear number 1 D-man.
I don't believe he will relinquish that role to Markov next year. I do not see Markov playing 25+ minutes per game and certainly not being a shutdown guy.
I think PK has become more confident under Cunney, both he and Ladouceur deserve a lot of credit for his maturity in the 2nd half of the season.
I think the Habs need to find him a partner who has his back physically and can play well defensively and then you will see an even more dominant player.
I like Gorges but he is more suited as a number 4, than a number 2.

His weakest point in my opinion are his shot decisions. I feel he often rushed the shot before anyone is in front of ye net. Although that could also be because not enough players are overly eager to play in the paint. Another negative that comes due to his shot decisions are the amount of his shots that are blocked, I'm no stats specialist like Francois so i dont have any numbers to back this up but I feel a lot of his shots get blocked due to his occasional impatience.

In any case he is still young and defenseman are like wine, thy get better with age. I have no doubt that he will improve his game and be a top defender on he NHL sooner rather than later.


Funny thing about Montreal is the complaints that we don't have any superstars and then when players like subban come around they continuously get shit on, I'm sure price would agree with me there.

PK Subban will be a solid NHL player for years. The Habs are wise to hold on to him and let him develop, they will be rewarded handsomely to do so. Defencemen take longer to fully develop.

Yes, he burst onto the scene last year with 14 goals, regressed slightly in goals this year with 7 currently, but the stats show his shooting is no different. His total points are similar, but he's a plus player this season on the 2nd worst team in the NHL.

I do believe that goals from a defenseman are a fluke stat anyway. Look at Lidstrom's career. He ranges anywhere from 9-20 goals each year. Total points are around the same range. Just means sometimes a pad save leads to an assist, sometimes it misses the pad and goes in. Result nonetheless is a goal. Anyone remember Adrian Aucoin coming out of nowhere and scoring 23 goals one year? Never done it since, but always had a hard-low shot.

When you shoot from the blue line, there are a lot of variables involved to get the goal. Generally the puck needs to elude 3-5 players bodies and a screened/slow to react goaltender. Its not a high percentage shot. But if you're consistent with it, the chance of a goal remains true. I'll take PK's consistency all day.

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